What you’re actually learning
Confidence is useful, but it is not evidence. The less we understand a subject, the harder it can be to see the size of what we do not know.
The professional bawbag solves this by treating every new fact as confirmation that they were basically right all along.
The clever bit hiding underneath
This lesson is about calibration: matching the strength of your claim to the strength of your knowledge. Real expertise usually sounds more careful because experts can see the complications.